Another Signature Event, another winner for the expert panel, as CP bags his first outright of 2025 with Russell Henley (44-1) at Bay Hill. Turns out, if you shrink the field and it only features the elite of the elite on the PGA Tour, we can do some serious damage.
Now we turn the page to THE signature event on the PGA Tour, the Players Championship, which is technically not one of the signature events because it’s an even bigger deal. Bigger field, bigger purse, bigger FedEx Cup points, bigger everything. All eyes will be on TPC Sawgrass this week, and we intend to keep cooking.
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The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Sawgrass, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Players Championship:
The Players Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Rory McIlroy (12-1, Bet365) — I love Rory’s new approach this year. He’s focusing on playing boring golf ala Scottie Scheffler, and we know that type of golf translates to success at TPC Sawgrass. He’s back in his old driver after struggling off the tee at Bay Hill, which should translate to the type of drives we saw at Pebble Beach. If he’s back to being one of the best drivers of the golf ball, we know that’s a weapon at TPC Sawgrass—and could lead to his second Players Championship victory.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Ludvig Aberg (18-1, FanDuel) — There has been a solid trend line for Players winners since it has moved to March. Recent form truly does matter. Well, that and iron play. That makes Aberg a tad more difficult to figure out. The Swede got sick at Farmers after holding the first-round lead and sank on the weekend then posted a disastrous third round at API which threw off a lot of his approach numbers. He still finished T-22, by the way. Keeping him on the edge of the PLAYERS winner trend line. In his other three starts we got a win, T-5 and WD. If you’re willing to give him a pass on that Saturday debacle at Bay Hill, Aberg’s primed to pick up another victory, building off T-8 a year ago in his Sawgrass debut.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood (30-1, FanDuel) — Fleetwood has the right game to win at TPC Sawgrass, a course that really favors tee-to-green play and can downplay putting. He’s finished top 10 twice at Sawgrass in the past (2018 and 2019) and has missed just one cut in seven starts here. Only Justin Thomas has better irons over the last six months than Fleetwood.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Ludvig Aberg (18-1, FanDuel) — In his first Players start, Ludvig Åberg finished eighth, and he didn’t putt well. Generational talents off the tee have a huge advantage in the modern game. Åberg’s ability to find the fairway at distances others cannot is a separating skill. Combine that with a strong approach game from close range (and far), above average scrambling skill, and a fantastic birdie-or-better percentage, and he’s one favorite who can compete with the World No. 1.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood (30-1, FanDuel) — I didn’t expect to bet Tommy Lad, but the stats are tough to ignore. He leads this elite field in SG/approach over the past 36 rounds, per RickRunGood.com, he’s 10th in Good Drive Percentage and he’s an elite scrambler. His all-around game is ready to win soon on the PGA Tour, and I’m ready to bet it’s a breakout performance on one of golf’s biggest stages.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Ludvig Aberg (18-1, FanDuel) — A Saturday from hell masked what was an otherwise solid performance from Ludvig Aberg last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He bounced back, or, as our old pal Rick Gehman put it, rebooted after a third-round 77 by shooting a four-under 32 on the front nine Sunday, ultimately finishing with a 68 to tie for 22nd. He gained over a stroke both off the tee and on approach in the final round, so he’s coming into the Players with a little momentum. It helps, too, that Aberg now lives in Ponte Vedra and plays TPC Sawgrass regularly. A sneaky home-course advantage for a guy who top-10’d in his debut appearance last year.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Tommy Fleetwood (30-1, FanDuel) — Tommy Fleetwood is quietly in some of the best approach form of his career, and he has now gained over two strokes on approach in nine straight starts. The Englishman had his driver on a string last week at Bay Hill as well, and he’s now returning to a shorter golf course with a similarly high missed fairway penalty that should be even more conducive to his accuracy. Russell Henley finally made good for those who stuck around through highs and lows, why not Tommy next?
Past results: We have another winner. Christopher Powers cashes his first outright of 2025, correctly picking Russell Henley to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at 44-1. It’s this panel’s second victory of the year, with Stephen Hennessey and Keith Stewart hitting on Ludvig Aberg (25-1) at the Genesis Invitational. Let’s keep it rolling at TPC Sawgrass.
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The Players Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Michael Kim (75-1, FanDuel) — It’s tough to call him a sleeper with his recent play, but the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted quite yet. The work he’s put in with Sean Foley is really translating—he hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his past three starts, including three top-five finishes.
Mayo: Nick Taylor (120-1, FanDuel) — Taylor’s lack of success at Sawgrass is concurrently confusing while making complete sense. The Canadian is basically Ricky Bobby: If he’s not first, he’s last. OK, maybe it’s not that extreme, but for a guy with five PGA Tour wins he tends to implode in stronger field events. That makes sense for most of the Masters and Signature Events, but Sawgrass is in the wheelhouse for style of course he does his best work; Sony, Wyndham, Phoenix. One of the most accurate players off the tee, Taylor enters with a win and top-25 finishes in five of his past six events and he’s gained 3.6, 4.8 and 8.2 strokes with his irons in three of his past four starts at the Players. That jibes with his current play as he’s top 10 in approach, 450-to-500-yard par 4s, putting from 5-to-10 feet and birdies-or-better gained over the past 24 rounds. Plus, we’ve seen he has the stones when he gets into Sunday contention. Something that can’t be said for most players above 100-1.
Gdula: Corey Conners (60-1, FanDuel) — Conners couldn’t buy a birdie on Sunday at API, but the Players has had plenty of recent winners with elite tee-to-green performances and subpar putting. That’s a perfect recipe for Conners.
Stewart: Sepp Straka (50-1, DraftKings) — Sepp Straka is playing the best golf of his career. Straka has won multiple times on tour, played in a Ryder Cup, and his current golf is better. Since Straka won the American Express in January, Sepp has finished seventh-15th-MC-11th-fifth. The Austrian’s tee-to-green numbers since the start of 2025 are top five in the field. The Players Championship rewards those who can confidently attack the course and score. With Sepp’s recent success, he is one player who can keep up with the favorites and earn us a significant pay day.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sepp Straka (50-1, DraftKings) — This didn’t feel square when I bet it on Monday, but now I’m seeing the entire industry backing our favorite Diet Coke-guzzling Austrian. For good reason. He’s excelled in all areas of his game in 2025, and he has a T-9 in 2022 and a T-16 last year. Straka has taken the next step in his game and won’t shy down from the stage.
Powers, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (80-1, FanDuel) — Upside, upside, upside. Yes, his results have been ugly this year, and the short game remains a capital P problem. But he quietly gained over four strokes on approach last week, missing the cut due to an ice-cold putter. We know that can flip on a dime and if Hovland’s irons are back, he could pop at one of the preeminent second-shot golf courses on the schedule. As we saw last season, he’s still very much a threat to spike at big events (second at PGA, second at FedEx St. Jude) no matter what his recent results look like coming in.
Lack: Daniel Berger (65-1, FanDuel) — I’ve been on Daniel Berger quite a bit this season and see no reason to hop off at an ideal course for his skill set. Berger has made some serious strides since returning from injury at the end of last summer, and he has already recorded five top-25 finishes in seven appearances this year, including a runner-up at TPC Scottsdale. His driver is fully back, and the putter is starting to come around as well. I expect Berger to add to his strong resume on short, positional Florida courses.
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The Players Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Patrick Cantlay (28-1, BetRivers) — We’ve seen flashes from Patrick Cantlay in 2025, but he hasn’t contended consistently enough to believe he’s ready to lift the trophy. His off-the-tee stats from Bay Hill last week would scare me from backing him.
Mayo: Collin Morikawa (14-1, FanDuel) — Hate doing it. But after getting run down by Henley last week, I worry about him closing when there are likely to be stronger cats this time around.
Gdula: Ludvig Aberg (18-1, FanDuel) — I don’t even mind Ludvig at TPC Sawgrass, as he showed he can navigate this place when he finished eighth last year, but the number is just a bit short compared to the other names around him with better long-term iron play and short game.
Stewart: Xander Schauffele (22-1, BetRivers) — Xander Schauffele had a very inconsistent week at API. Each over par round was followed by a one-under par round. Fresh off a rib injury this is what we expect. Not a fade forever, but let’s let the 2024 two-time major champion get some tournament reps in before we back him. A better story this week is will he make the cut. Schauffele holds the longest current cut streak on tour at 58 in a row. Players in great form have missed the weekend on the Stadium Course, can Xander keep his consistency going?
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (22-1, DraftKings) — It’s tough to imagine Xander could take all that time off and show up after a bad showing at Bay Hill and win this week. Save your Xander sweats for the majors.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (11-1, FanDuel) — All this equipment talk would terrify me if I were wagering my hard-earned dollars on Rory this week. Pass.
Lack: Rory McIlroy (11-1, FanDuel) — I know that Rory McIlroy is a former winner at TPC Sawgrass, but since his Players victory in 2019, the four-time major winner has missed two of his last four cuts at the iconic Pete Dye design. Talent can always trump course fit, but I’ve always seen TPC Sawgrass as a place that may stifle McIlroy’s power and penalize his wayward driving, as it features one of the highest missed fairway penalties on tour. I’ll be saving my McIlroy exposure for more driver-heavy golf courses later in the season.
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The Players Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Justin Thomas (-120) over Xander Schauffele (Bet365) — Thomas is doing a lot of things right at the moment, and they might not be leading to wins, he’s racking up top finishes. He’s close to breaking through—and against Schauffele, who’s still fighting his way back from injury—this should lead to a win in this matchup.
Mayo: Matti Schmid (+100) over Stephan Jaeger (Coolbet) — You can find this in the nationality markets under “Top German.” Schmid has done solid work at Pete Dye tracks in his career and actually comes in hot with top 20s in each of his past two starts. And he showed out in his debut a year ago posting a T-26. While Jaeger is the better overall player, I just hate his skill match for Sawgrass. He’s made the cut just once in three tries (T-44 in 2023), and while his ball-striking will probably be decent, I tend to favor him at longer courses where accuracy means less, and his scrambling can take over. Oh, he’s been dealing with a bad case of the LEFTS off the tee the past month, too. Going to be tough to scramble from a lake.
Gdula: Nick Taylor (-105) over Davis Thompson (FanDuel) — Taylor’s irons are on fire, and he’s got a pretty complete game. Thompson also has some recent putting woes right now.
Stewart: Adam Scott (-110) over Taylor Pendrith (FanDuel) — For two weeks in a row, Taylor Pendrith has paid us a 72-hole bet after 36 holes. The once consistent Canadian is now consistently missing the cut. Pendrith’s putter and short game are really struggling. The last time he gained with both in the same event was the BMW in August. Adam Scott is a former Players champion and has successfully navigated 17 cuts in a row across multiple tours. Five straight top 40s in 2025, here’s another great opportunity to get paid on Friday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Si Woo Kim (-120) over Tony Finau (Bet365) — Finau’s been playing better the past few events, but looking at a longer 36-round sample size, Si Woo has a sizable edge in all the key metrics. Finau’s been average in SG/off the tee (78th in this field) and SG/approach (81st, per RickRunGood.com). Finau has one finish better than 20th in eight starts at TPC Sawgrass, whereas Si Woo is a former champ here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (-110) over Doug Ghim (DraftKings) — Griffin cashed for me last week, and he didn’t even play that well. Prior to Bay Hill, he went fourth-fourth at Mexico and Cognizant, gaining over four strokes tee-to-green in both starts. I like him to return to that form at Sawgrass. Ghim gaining over 10 tee-to-green at the Cog is certainly impressive but the putting has been downright awful and this week he’s on his worst surface, Bermuda.
Lack: Aaron Rai (-110) over Robert MacIntyre (FanDuel) — Aaron Rai continues to play some outstanding golf, and it appears the market is finally starting to take notice. While Rai was an obvious addition to my outright card, I also love him in this matchup against Robert MacIntyre. Rai is a far more accurate driver of the ball than MacIntyre, and a more consistent approach player as well. Sawgrass has always accentuated finding fairways over pure power, and I’ll gladly go to war with the far more accurate player in this matchup at even money.
Matchup Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Powers: 1 for 1 (Griffin (+100) over Pendrith); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Fleetwood (-115) over Cantlay); Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Conners (+120) over Lowry); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Griffin (+100) over Pendrith); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Lowry (-120) over Zalatoris); Lack: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 7-3-0 (up 4.06 units); Hennessey: 6-3-1 (up 2.74 units); Swing coach: 4-2-1 (up 1.74 units); Stewart: 5-5-0 (down 0.02 units); Lack: 5-5-0 (down 0.5 units); Gdula: 4-5-1 (down 1.52 units); Mayo: 4-6-0 (down 1.99 units)
The Players Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Sepp Straka (+450, FanDuel) — Straka is simply playing brilliant golf on all types of setups. Even after a slow start at Bay Hill, he stormed back with a great finish. I just think hes going to be continue his great play and his great ball-striking will have him in the mix again at TPC Sawgrass.
Mayo: Sepp Straka (+450, FanDuel) — Yes, this would be a big step up in class for Straka against his three other wins, but he fits the lead-in form criteria and is a skill match. He’s won in Florida and at a Pete Dye course already while positing five top-15 finishes in his past six starts, including a win. Additionally, Straka’s one of the more accurate players in the field, sits top five in approach over the past 24 rounds and is tops of all players in opportunities gained.
Gdula: Sepp Straka (+450, FanDuel) — Straka’s irons are so hot right now, and he has parlayed that into a lot of strong finishes of late, including seven top-15s in his last nine starts. Straka also has finished T-16 or better in two of his last three starts at TPC Sawgrass.
Stewart: Collin Morikawa (+160, DraftKings) — Collin Morikawa has nine top 10s since last year’s PLAYERS Championship. Tailor-made for TPC Sawgrass, Morikawa’s mix of accuracy off the tee and proximity on approach are vital to contending. Collin has not been able to close lately, but his ability to contend has been very consistent. Instead of the outright heartbreak, take the 10 places and the winning ticket that comes along with it.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (+500, Bet365) — TPC Sawgrass requires elite ball-striking, and that’s the Ryder Cup captain’s M.O. He’s riding off the high of that final-round 64 at Bay Hill, and if it wasn’t for struggling on Saturday, he would’ve had a chance to don the red cardigan. Eliminate those mistakes and he might be a Players champion.
Powers, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (+700, Bet365) — Much like my Hovland, Zalatoris appeared to turn a corner tee-to-green last week while losing over six strokes with the putter. Unlike Hovland, he did make the cut and managed a 22nd-place finish, his second straight top 25. The gambling community has been patiently waiting for Willy Z to return to his pre-back injury form, and it seems like now is as good a time as ever to bet on that happening.
Lack: Collin Morikawa (+160, DraftKings) — While Collin Morikawa suffered a crushing defeat last week at Bay Hill, the takeaways should be overwhelmingly positive. The two-time major winner is still in some of the best ball-striking form of his career, and his recent approach play is nearing peak Morikawa levels. While he has yet to truly pop at TPC Sawgrass, the Pete Dye design is a near perfect fit on paper for Morikawa, and his accuracy off the tee and elite middle iron play should be dividends here for years to come.
Top-10 results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Byeong Hun An +700); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley +360); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley +360); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 3 for 7 (up 8.8 units); Lack: 4 for 10 (up 8.4 units); Gdula: 4 for 10 (up 6.4 units); Mayo: 2 for 10 (up 6.33 units); Stewart: 2 for 10 (down 4.75 units); Hennessey: 1 for 10 (down 5.4 units); Powers: 0 for 10 (down 10 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
